Peter Congdon
Research Professor of Quantitative Geography and Health Statistics
School of Geography and Life Sciences Institute, Queen Mary, University of London

 

Programs & Data Sets for Applied Bayesian Modelling, 2nd edition (John Wiley, 2014)

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Applied-Bayesian-Modelling-Probability-Statistics-ebook/dp/B00LC0QUWY

ABM2e Program Codes and Data.zip

Programs & Data Sets for Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods   (CRC Press, 2010)

ABHMCRC.zip

Programs & Data Sets for Bayesian Statistical Modelling, 2nd edition  (John Wiley, 2006)

BSM2.zip

Programs & Data Sets for Bayesian Models for Categorical Data (John Wiley, 2005)

BMCD.zip

Programs & Data Sets for Applied Bayesian Models (John Wiley, 2003)

ABM.zip

Programs & Data Sets for Bayesian Statistical Modelling 1st edition (John Wiley, 2001)

BSM1.zip

 

Interests

Spatial Statistics, Spatial Epidemiology, Spatial Demography
Bayesian Techniques
Health needs, health inequality and disease prevalence.
Population Health

Pubmed http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=congdon+p.

Google Scholar https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=Ry7-4dUAAAAJ&hl=en

Microsoft Academic https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/1992065356

 

Professional Activities

Contributor to Statistics.com (The Institute for Statistics Education) courses :

           Bayesian Statistics in R http://www.statistics.com/bayesian-r

           Bayesian Regression Modelling via MCMC Techniques http://www.statistics.com/ourcourses/MCMC/
           An Introduction to Bayesian Hierarchical and Multi-level Models http://www.statistics.com/bayesian-hierarchical-models

           An Introduction to Bayesian Computing and Techniques http://www.statistics.com/ourcourses/BayesianComputing/

Editorial Board, Journal of Biometrics & Biostatistics http://omicsonline.org/biometrics-biostatistics.php

Editorial Board, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health http://www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph

Editorial Board, AIMS Public Health http://www.aimspress.com/home.jsp?journalID=30

Editorial Board (Spatial Statistics Section Editor), Springer Handbook of Regional Science, 2013

Editorial Board, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis (2008-2010)

Member, Review Panel, Environmental Exposure and Health Initiative 2010 (NERC/MRC/DH/ESRC)
Guest Editor, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis (Special Issue, Spatial Statistics)
Elected Member (2007) International Statistical Institute
Associate Editor, Biometrics 2006-08
College of Experts, NIHR SDO Programme, Health Services Research, 2010
MRC/ESRC Joint Studentship and Postdoctoral Fellowship Schemes: Referee Panel 2008
Referee Panel ESRC/MRC Joint Studentship and Post-Doctoral Fellowship Scheme 2006
Refereeing grant applications on behalf of: UK Economic & Social Research Council; NHS Service Delivery Organisation R&D Programme; Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research; Arts and Humanities Research Board; Research Grants Council (Hong Kong); Health Research Council of New Zealand; Chief Scientist Office (Edinburgh) HSR Training Scheme; Cancer Research UK; Wales Office of Research and Development for Health and Social Care

Recent Presentations

Bayesian Approaches to Spatial Modelling, with a Health Focus. QMUL Biological and Experimental Psychology Group, January 2016

Latent Variable and Structural Equation Models: Bayesian Perspectives and Implementation, Bayes Pharma, Keynote presentation, London June 2014 Congdon Talk Bayes Pharma.pptx

Modelling changes in small area Disability Free Life Expectancy: Trends in London wards between 2001 and 2011. REVES, Edinburgh, May 2014, http://research.ncl.ac.uk/InHALE/REVES2014/pdfs/FinalAbstracts140514C.pdf  REVES Talk May 30 2014 Congdon.pptx

Measuring spatial clustering in disease patterns. Statistics Group Seminar, QMUL QMUL Stats Seminar January 2014 Talk.pptx

Assessing local spatial clustering in disease from relative risk models, 5th International Conference ERCIM, 2012 Oviedo

Disease Prevalence Estimates for Neighbourhoods: Combining Spatial Interpolation and Spatial Factor Models, Latent Gaussian Models Conference, Trondheim 2012

TRONDHEIM 2012 TALK CONGDON.pptx

A model for spatially varying crime rates in English districts: the effects of social capital, fragmentation, deprivation and urbanicity, AAG 2012

AAG 2012 TALK CONGDON.pptx

Spatial Path Models with Multiple Indicators and Causes, American Statistical Association, 9th International Conference on Health Policy Statistics, Oct 2011, Cleveland OHIO TALK.pptx

Spatial common factor models with multiple causes: lung cancer in US counties, ENAR/IBS Spring 2011, Miami, ENAR TALK.pdf

Suicide Rates in US Counties and the Relevance of Area Socioeconomic Structure, American Public Health Assoc, Denver, Nov 2010, Paper

The Spatial Pattern of Suicide in the US in relation to Deprivation, Fragmentation and Rurality, RGS-IBG Annual Conference London 2010 RGS talk.pptx

Disease Mapping Course, XXX Jornadas Economía de la Salud-Valencia 2010 Dis_Map.pptx

American College of Epidemiology, Washington Sept 2009 (with Patsy Lloyd) ACE_Poster.ppt

Psychometric Society Conference, Cambridge July 2009 (Keynote speaker) Congdon Cambridge Talk.ppt
CDC Diabetes Translation Conference, Long Beach (Small Area Estimation Session), April 2009 CongdonTalk.ppt
Royal Statistical Society Conference, Nottingham, Migration Models Session (September 2008)  Talk
Centre for Geographical Health Research, Southampton University, Nov 2007 Talk

Austrian Statistical Society, Linz, Sept 2007 (STATISTIKTAGE 2007), Keynote Speaker Talk
Invited Presentation, Workshop on Bayesian Approaches to Spatial Modelling, Royal Geographical Society-IBG 2007 International Conference
ESDS Government Research Conference 2006, Estimating the Prevalence of Diabetes and Other Chronic Diseases for Small Geographic Areas
Structural equation methods to represent deprivation and fragmentation constructs, Deprivation Indices Conference 2007, King's College London Institute of Psychiatry, Talk

Funded Projects & Collaborations

GRO Scotland/Office of National Statistics. Bayesian Methods for Datazone Population Estimation using Administrative Datasets.
Collaboration with National Minority Quality Forum (http://www.nmqf.org) and CDC on Bayesian mapping of Zip Code Tabulation Area disease prevalence, and development of D-Atlas
Psychiatric Health Needs Mapping in New York State (Grants HR1 SM54207, HR1 SM56661, Substance Abuse & Mental Health Services Administration)
ESRC CASE Studentship: Small Area Life Expectancies in London
Resilience and Capability Effects on Health and Education Status (ESRC)
Neighbourhood Influences on Adolescent Health in East London
(ESRC)
Locality Level Mortality and Socio-economic Change in Britain since 1920 (ESRC Health Variations, Phase II).
Mapping Mental Health Services in East London (Dept of Health, HAZ Access to Information WorkStream funding)
Mapping Community and Mental Health Services for the Elderly in Barking and Havering (King's Fund)
Influences of Geographic Setting on Social Differences in Health (ESRC)

Publications
 

 

Ferreira M, Congdon P, Edwards, Y (2017) Bayesian Confirmatory Analysis of Multiple Response Data. Applied Marketing Analytics, 3(1): 70-90

Zhao JH, Luan J, Congdon P (2017) Bayesian Linear Mixed Model with Polygenic Effects, J Stat Software (forthcoming)

Jonker M, D`Ippolito, E, Eikemo, T, Congdon P (et al) (2017) The effect of regional politics on regional life expectancy in Italy (1980-2010), Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, 45(2):121-131

Congdon P (2017) Representing Spatial Dependence and Spatial Discontinuity in Ecological Epidemiology: a Scale Mixture Approach. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 31(2): 291–304. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00477-016-1292-9. doi:10.1007/s00477-016-1292-9

Congdon P (2016) Spatiotemporal Frameworks for Infectious Disease Diffusion and Epidemiology. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 13(12), 1261. doi: 10.3390/ijerph13121261. http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/13/12/1261

Congdon P (2016) Assessing Impacts on Unplanned Hospitalisations of Care Quality and Access Using a Structural Equation Method: With a Case Study of Diabetes, Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 13(9), 870; doi:10.3390/ijerph13090870 http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/13/9/870

Congdon, P (2016) Area Variations in Multiple Morbidity using a Life Table Methodology. Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology, 16(1): 58–74. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10742-015-0142-4/fulltext.html https://qmro.qmul.ac.uk/xmlui/handle/123456789/12227

Schofield, P, Das-Munshi, J, Mathur, R, Congdon, P, Hull, S (2016) Does depression diagnosis and antidepressant prescribing vary by location? Analysis of ethnic density associations using a large primary care dataset. Psychological Medicine, 46 (6): 1321-1329 http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=10208415&fileId=S0033291715002913  https://qmro.qmul.ac.uk/xmlui/handle/123456789/12354

Congdon P (2016) A Local Join Counts Method for Spatial Clustering in Disease from Relative Risk Models, Communications in Statistics – Theory and Methods, 45, 3059-3075 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03610926.2014.894071  https://qmro.qmul.ac.uk/xmlui/handle/123456789/12475

Congdon P (2016) Explaining Variations in Obesity and Inactivity between US Metropolitan Areas, GeoJournal, 81(2): 211-229

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10708-014-9614-2#page-1 Obesity-Inactivity Paper.pdf

Congdon P (2015) Spatial variation in attributable risks, Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 12, 39-52 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877584515000039     SSTE Paper.pdf

S. Andreon, P. Congdon (2014) The insignificant evolution of the richness-mass relation of galaxy clusters. Astronomy & Astrophysics, A&A 568, A23 (2014) DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201423616  http://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/pdf/2014/08/aa23616-14.pdf

Congdon P (2014) Modelling Changes in Small Area Disability Free Life Expectancy: Trends in London Wards between 2001 and 2011, Statistics in Medicine, 33(29), 5138–5150, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/sim.6298/abstract

Congdon, P (2014) Applied Bayesian Modelling, 2nd edition, John Wiley http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1119951518.html

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Applied-Bayesian-Modelling-Probability-Statistics-ebook/dp/B00LC0QUWY

Congdon P, Cai Q, Puckrein P, Xu L (2014) Predicting Risks of Increased Morbidity among Atrial Fibrillation Patients using Consumption Classes, International Journal of Statistics in Medical Research, 2014, 3, 203-214 http://www.lifescienceglobal.com/pms/index.php/ijsmr/article/view/2207

Congdon P (2014) Estimating Life Expectancy in Small Areas, with an Application to Recent Changes in Life Expectancy in US Counties. In: Mortality in an International Perspective, eds. J Anson, M Luy. Springer http://www.springer.com/social+sciences/population+studies/book/978-3-319-03028-9

Congdon P (2014) Modelling Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Cover: an Application of Generalized and Inflated Beta and Gamma Densities, Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications 2014, 1:3  doi:10.1186/2195-5832-1-3 http://www.jsdajournal.com/content/1/1/3

Congdon P (2014) Interpolation between spatial frameworks: an application of process convolution to estimating neighbourhood disease prevalence. Stat Methods Med Res. 23(2):169-82 http://smm.sagepub.com/content/early/2012/05/02/0962280212447150.long

Congdon P (2014) Estimating life expectancies for US Small Areas: a regression framework, J Geog Systems 16, 1-18,  http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10109-013-0177-4

Congdon P (2014) Bayesian Spatial Statistical Modelling. pp 1419-1434 in: Handbook of Regional Science, Fischer, M, Nijkamp, P (eds.) Springer

Congdon P (2013) Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk, Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2013 Oct 14;10(10):5011-25. http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/10/10/5011

Congdon, P (2013) Forecasting Regional Demand for Acute Health Care, Chapter 14 in Patient Flow: Reducing Delay in Healthcare Delivery, 2nd edition, Springer http://www.springer.com/business+%26+management/operations+research/book/978-1-4614-9511-6

Congdon P (2013) A model for spatially varying crime rates in English Districts: the effects of social capital, fragmentation, deprivation and urbanicity, International Journal of Criminology and Sociology, 2 http://www.lifescienceglobal.com/home/cart?view=product&id=530

Jonker, M, Congdon P, van Lenthe F, Burdorf A, Mackenbach J (2013) Small-area health comparisons using health-adjusted life expectancy: a Bayesian random-effects approach, Health & Place http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1353829213000634

Jonker M, van Lenthe F, Donkers B, Congdon P, Burdorf A, Mackenbach J (2013) The impact of nursing homes on small-area life expectancies. Health and Place, 19:25-32 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1353829212001669

Congdon P (2013) Assessing Univariate and Bivariate Spatial Clustering in Modelled Disease Risks. J Biomet Biostat 4:161. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2155-6180.1000161

Congdon P (2013) Modelling small-area inequality in premature mortality using years of life lost rates. Journal of Geographical Systems, 15(2): 149-167 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10109-012-0167-y

Congdon P (2013) Assessing the impact of socioeconomic variables on small area variations in suicide outcomes in England., Int J Environ Res Public Health. 10(1):158-77. http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/10/1/158

Congdon, P (2012) A Model for Spatially Disaggregated Trends and Forecasts of Diabetes Prevalence, Journal of Data Science, 10(4), 597–617

Jonker M, van Lenthe F, Congdon P et al (2012) Comparison of Bayesian random effects and traditional life expectancy estimations in small area applications, American Journal of Epidemiology, 176(10):929-37. http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/176/10/929

Congdon, P (2012) Spatial health factors with selection among multiple causes: lung cancer in US counties, Communications in Statistics – Theory and Methods, 41, 1933-1953. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03610926.2010.551015

Congdon, P (2012) A Latent Variable Model for Suicide Risk in relation to Social Capital and Socio-economic Status. Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol. 47(8):1205-19. Epub 2011 Aug 28. http://www.springerlink.com/content/a7pm565485843432/

Congdon P, Lloyd C (2012) A spatial random effects model for interzone flows: commuting in Northern Ireland, Journal of Applied Statistics, 39, 199-213, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02664763.2011.580336

Congdon P (2011) Spatial path models with multiple indicators and multiple causes: mental health in US Counties, Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 2, 103-116 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sste.2011.03.003

Congdon P (2011) The spatial pattern of suicide in the US in relation to deprivation, fragmentation and rurality. Urban Studies, 48, 2101-2122.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0042098010380961

Congdon, P (2011) Structural equation models for area health outcomes with model selection, Journal of Applied Statistics, 38: 745–767. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02664760903563692

Congdon P,  Lloyd P (2011) Toxocara infection in the United States: the relevance of poverty, geography and demography as risk factors, and implications for estimating county prevalence, International Journal of Public Health 56, 15-24.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00038-010-0143-6

Congdon, P (2011) Explaining the spatial pattern of suicide and self-harm rates: a case study of east and south east England, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 4(1): 23-43, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12061-009-9038-4

Congdon, P, Lloyd P (2010) Estimating small area diabetes prevalence in the US using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Journal of Data Science, 8(2), 235-252

Congdon, P (2010) Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods, Chapman & Hall/CRC http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781584887201

Congdon, P (2010) A Multilevel Model for Comorbid Outcomes: Obesity and Diabetes in the US , Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 7(2), 333-352; http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph7020333

Congdon, P (2010) Estimating Prevalence of Coronary Heart Disease for Small Areas Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity, Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 7(1), 164-177; http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph7010164

 

Congdon, P (2010) Random effects models for migration attractivity and retentivity: a Bayesian methodology, J Roy Stat Soc Series A, 173(4): 755–774

Congdon P (2010) A spatial structural equation model with an application to area health needs.  Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 80(4), 401-412 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00949650802676300)

 

Congdon, P (2010) A multiple indicator, multiple cause method for representing social capital with an application to psychological distress. Journal of Geographical Systems, 12, pp 1-23, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10109-009-0097-5

 

Congdon, P (2010) Assessing differential area mortality trends via Bayesian random effects. Communications in Statistics – Theory and Methods, 39, 2205 – 2230

 

LeSage J, Banerjee S, Fischer M, Congdon P (2009) Spatial statistics: methods, models & computation, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 53: 2781-2785. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2008.11.001

 

Congdon, P (2009) Modelling the impact of socioeconomic structure on spatial health outcomes. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 53: 3047-3056  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2007.10.021  

 

Congdon P (2009) A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates, International Journal of Health Geographics http://www.ij-healthgeographics.com/content/8/1/6

Washington S, Congdon P, Karlaftis M, Mannering F (2009) Bayesian multinomial logit: theory and route choice example, Transportation Research Record, 2136, pp 28-36

 

Congdon P (2009) Life expectancies for small areas: a Bayesian random effects methodology, International Statistical Review, 77, 222-240 http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/122457806/abstract

 

Congdon P (2009) Adaptive autoregressive priors for area and time structured mortality data. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 139, 2870-2884.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jspi.2009.01.011 

 

Curtis S, Congdon P, Almog M, Ellerman R (2009) County variation in use of inpatient and ambulatory psychiatric care in New York State 1999-2001: need and supply influences in a structural model, Health and Place 15(2):568-577  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.healthplace.2008.09.009  

 

 

Congdon P (2008) The need for psychiatric care in England: a spatial factor methodology. Journal of Geographical Systems 10 (3), 217-239 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10109-008-0064-6

 

Congdon P (2008) A spatially adaptive conditional autoregressive prior for area health data, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.stamet.2008.02.005 Statistical Methodology, 5, 552-563

 

Congdon P (2008) A bivariate frailty model for events with a permanent survivor fraction and non-monotonic hazards; with an application to age at first maternity, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 52 (9), 4346-4356 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2008.02.017

 

Fagg, J, Curtis S, Clark C, Congdon, P, Stansfeld S (2008) Neighbourhood perceptions among inner city adolescents: relationships with their individual characteristics and with independently assessed neighbourhood conditions. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 28, 128-142  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2007.10.004  

 

Congdon, P (2008) Estimating  the prevalence of coronary heart disease in local areas: integrating  information from health surveys and area mortality, Health & Place, 14(1) 59-75    pdf     http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.healthplace.2007.04.003  

 

Congdon, P (2008) A spatial structural equation model for health outcomes. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 138 (7): 2090-2105 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jspi.2007.09.001

 

Congdon, P (2008) Indirect area estimates of disease prevalence: Bayesian evidence synthesis with an application to CHD. Journal of Data Science, 6 (1), 15-32, http://www.sinica.edu.tw/~jds/Content-v-6-1.html

 

Congdon, P (2008) Bayesian Statistics, in "Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Assessment" Wiley

 

Ghosh, S, Das, K, Congdon, P (2007) Analysis of marginally specified semi-nonparametric models for clustered binary data. Statistica Neerlandica 61 (3), 292-306.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9574.2007.00355.x

 

Congdon, P (2007) A model for spatial variations in life expectancy; mortality in Chinese regions in 2000. International Journal of Health Geographics 2007, 6:16 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1476-072X-6-16  http://www.ij-healthgeographics.com/content/6/1/16

 

Congdon P, Almog M, Curtis S, Ellerman R (2007) A spatial structural equation modelling framework for health count responses. Statistics in Medicine 26 (29): 5267-5284,  pdf   http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.2921

 

Congdon, P (2007) Bayesian modeling of migration age structures.  In "The Estimation of International Migration in Europe: Issues, Models and Assessment", Raymer, J, Willekens, F (eds). Wiley, Migration.pdf

 

Congdon, P (2007) Model weights for model choice and averaging, Statistical Methodology 4(2):143-157 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572312706000190

Congdon, P (2007) Mixtures of spatial and unstructured effects for spatially discontinuous health outcomes. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 51, 3197-3212 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2006.11.028

 

Contributor to Bartley, M (ed) (2006) Capability and Resilience : Beating the Odds, C&R Network and Economic and Social Research Council

 

Congdon, P (2006) Modelling hospital activity: accounting for small area and primary care practice variation, Advances and Applications in Statistics, 6, 335-351

 

Congdon, P (2006) A model for geographical variation in health and total life expectancy, Demographic Research, 14,  157-178

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol14/9/

 

Congdon, P (2006) Modelling multiple hospital outcomes: the impact of small area and primary care practice variation. International Journal of Health Geographics, 5: 50. http://www.ij-healthgeographics.com/content/5/1/50

 

Congdon, P (2006) Bayesian modelling strategies for spatially varying regression coefficients: A multivariate perspective for multiple outcomes. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 51(5), pp 2586-2601,pdf  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2006.01.004 

 

Congdon, P (2006) Bayesian Statistical Modelling, 2nd edition. Wiley http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470018755.html

 

Fagg, J, Curtis, S, Congdon, P, Stansfeld, S (2006) Psychological distress among adolescents, and its relationship to individual, family and area characteristics; evidence from East London, UK. Social Science & Medicine, 63, 636-48  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2006.02.012 

 

Congdon, P (2006) Estimating diabetes prevalence by small area in England. J Public Health, 28, 71-81,pdf   http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdi068

 

Congdon P (2006) Estimating population prevalence of psychiatric conditions by small area with applications to analysing outcome and referral variations. Health & Place, 12:465-78  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.healthplace.2005.05.001  

 

Congdon, P (2006) A spatio-temporal forecasting approach for health indicators, Journal of Data Science  4(4): 399-412

http://www.sinica.edu.tw/~jds/Content-v-4-4.html

 

Congdon, P (2006) A model framework for mortality and health data classified by age, area and time. Biometrics, 61, 269-278

 

P. Congdon (2006) Bayesian model comparison via parallel model output, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 76 (2), 149-165 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00949650412331320864

 

Congdon, P (2006) Forecasting Regional Demand for Acute Health Care, Chapter 10 in Patient Flow: Reducing Delay in Healthcare Delivery, Ed Randolph Hall, Springer

 

P. Congdon(2006) Bayesian model choice based on Monte Carlo estimates of posterior model probabilities, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 50, 346-357  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2004.08.001     WINBUGS Codes.zip

 

Congdon, P (2006) A model for nonparametric spatially varying regression effects, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 50, 422-445  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2004.08.008 

 

Curtis, S, Copeland, A,  Fagg, J,  Congdon, P, Almog, M,  Fitzpatrick, J (2006) The ecological relationship between deprivation, social isolation and rates of hospital admission for acute psychiatric care: a comparison of London and New York City. Health and Place, 12, 19-37

 

P. Congdon (2005) Bayesian Models for Categorical Data, Wiley

 

Congdon, P, Clarke, T (2005) Assessing intervention effects in a community based trial to reduce self-harm: a methodological case study, Public Health, 119, 1011-5.

 

Chapman J, Congdon P, Shaw S, Carter Y (2005) The geographical distribution of specialists in public health in the United Kingdom: Is capacity related to need? Public Health, 119, 639-646

 

P. Congdon (2005) MCMC and Bayesian Methods, In: Encyclopedia of Statistics in the Behavioural Sciences, Wiley

 

Mitra S, Washington S, Congdon P, Van Schalkwyk, I. (2005) A Bayesian estimation approach for modeling overdispersion in crash data. In Transportation Research Board, 84th Annual Meeting Proceedings. TRB, National Research Council, Washington, DC

 

Congdon, P, Southall, H (2005) Trends in inequality in infant mortality in the North of England, 1921-1973 and their association with urban and social structure, J Roy Stat Soc Series A, 168, 679-700

 

Chapman J, Shaw S, Congdon P, Carter Y, Abbott S, Petchey R.(2004) Specialist public health capacity in the UK: working in the new primary care organisations. Public Health 119, 22-31 http://www.publichealthjrnl.com/article/S0033-3506(04)00148-9/references

 

P.Congdon (2005) Bayesian predictive model comparison via parallel sampling, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 48(4), 735-753  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2004.03.016 

 

Fagg, J, Curtis, S, Stansfeld, S, Congdon, P (2004) Neighbourhood influences on adolescent health in East London. In Sagan, I. and Czepczinski, M. (eds.), Featuring the Quality of Urban Life in Contemporary Cities of Eastern and Western Europe, Bogucki Wydawnictwo Naukowe, Gdansk-Poznan, 117-124

 

P.Congdon (2004) Contextual effects: index construction and technique, International Journal of Epidemiology, 33, 741 – 742

 

Campos, R, Congdon, P, et al (2004) Locality level mortality and socioeconomic change in Britain since 1920: first steps towards an analysis of infant mortality variation, In P. Boyle, S. Curtis, A. Gatrell, E. Graham, E. Moore (eds.) The Geography of Health Inequalities in the Developed World, Aldershot: Ashgate

 

Congdon, P (2004) Modelling trends and inequality in small area mortality, J Applied Statistics, 31, 6, 603-622

 

Congdon, P, Southall, H (2004) Small area variations in infant mortality in England and Wales in the inter-war period and their link with socio-economic factors, Health and Place, 10, 363-382  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.healthplace.2003.05.001 

 

Almog, M, Curtis, S, Copeland, A, Congdon, P (2004) Geographical variation in acute psychiatric admissions within New York City 1990-2000: growing inequalities in service use?, Social Science and Medicine, 59,361-376

 

Congdon, P (2003) A multivariate model for spatio-temporal health outcomes with an application to suicide mortality, Geographical Analysis, 36, 234-258

 

Curtis, S, Southall, H, Congdon, P, Dodgeon, B (2003) Analysis of the Longitudinal Study sample in England using new data on area of residence in childhood. Social Science and Medicine, 57(12)

 

P.Congdon (2003) Modelling spatially varying impacts of socioeconomic predictors on mortality outcomes, Journal of Geographical Systems, 5 (20, 161-184

 

P.Congdon (2003) Applied Bayesian Models, John Wiley http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0471486957.html

 

P.Congdon (2002) A life table approach to small area health need profiling, Statistical Modelling, 2,1-26

 

P.Congdon (2002) A model for mental health needs and resourcing in small geographic areas: a multivariate spatial perspective, Geographical Analysis, 34, 2, 168-186

 

P.Congdon (2001) The development of gravity models for hospital patient flows under system change: a Bayesian modelling approach, Health Care Management Science, 4, 289-304

 

P. Congdon, R. Campos, S. Curtis, H. Southall, I. Gregory, I. Jones (2001) Quantifying and explaining changes in geographical inequality of infant mortality in England and Wales since the 1890s, International Journal of Population Geography, 7, 35-51

 

P. Congdon (2001) Health status and healthy life measures for population health need assessment: modelling variability and uncertainty, Health and Place, 7(1):13-25.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1353-8292(00)00034-4  

 

R. Fowler, P. Congdon and S. Hamilton (2001) Assessing health status and outcomes in older people attending a geriatric day hospital, Public Health, 114, 440-44

 

P. Congdon (2001) Monitoring suicide mortality: a Bayesian approach, European J. of Population , 16, 3,1-34

 

P.Congdon (2001) Bayesian Statistical Modelling, John Wiley

 

P.Congdon (2001) Predicting adverse infant health outcomes using routine screening variables: modelling the impact of interdependent risk factors, J. Applied Statistics, 28(2), 183-197

 

P. Congdon (2000) A Bayesian approach to prediction using the gravity model, with an application to patient flow modelling, Geographical Analysis, 32 (3) ,205-224

 

P Congdon, N Best (2000) Small area variation in hospital admission rates: adjusting for referral and provider variation, J. Roy Stat Soc, Series C, 49(2), 207-226

 

P. Congdon, (1999) Primary Care Needs Assessment and Resourcing: Complementary Practice and Geographic Perspectives, Health and Place, 5, 1, 59-82

 

P. Congdon, A. Smith and C. Dean (1998) Assessing psychiatric morbidity from a community register: methods for Bayesian adjustment, Urban Studies, 35 (12), 2323-2352

 

P. Congdon (1998) A multi-level model for infant health outcomes: maternal risk factors and geographic variation, The Statistician, 47 (1), 159-182

 

P. Congdon (1997) Multilevel and clustering analysis of health outcomes in small areas, European J.of Population, 13, 305-338

 

P.Congdon (1997) Realignment of suicide differentials in London: an examination of trends in the 1980s and 1990s, The London Journal,22, 160-174

 

P.Congdon (1997) Bayesian models for the spatial structure of rare health outcomes: a study of suicide using the BUGS program, Journal of Health and Place, 3(4), 229-247  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1353-8292(97)00017-8 

 

P.Congdon, S.Shouls,S.Curtis (1997) A multi-level perspective on small area health and mortality: a case study of England and Wales, International Journal of Population Geography,3, 243-263.

 

S. Hamilton, P. Congdon and R. Fowler (1996) Measuring outcomes of care in a day hospital setting, Elderly Care, 8(3), 14-17

 

P. Congdon (1996) General linear gravity models for the impact of casualty unit closures, Urban Studies, 33, 1707-1728

 

S.Shouls, P.Congdon, S.Curtis (1996) Modelling inequality in reported long term illness:  combining individual and area characteristics, J. Epid. Comm. Health, 50, 366-376

 

S.Shouls, P.Congdon, S.Curtis (1996) Geographic variation in health: the development of a relevant area typology for SAR districts, Health and Place, 2(3), 139-155  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/1353-8292(96)00002-0 

 

P.Congdon (1996) The incidence of suicide and parasuicide: a small area study, Urban Studies, 33, 137-158

 

P.Congdon (1996) The epidemiology of suicide in London, J. Royal. Stat.Soc, Ser A, 159, 515-533

 

P.Congdon (1995) Life table analysis for areas using vital register data, Eur J Popul 11 (4): 343-369

 

P.Congdon (1995) The impact of area context on long term illness and premature mortality: an illustration of multi-level analysis, Regional Studies, 29, 327-344

 

P.Congdon (1995) Localities for epidemiological monitoring and health policy, Urban Studies, 32(7), 1175-1198

 

P.Congdon (1995) Socio-economic structure and health in London, Urban Studies, 32 (3), 523-549

 

P.Congdon (1995) Micro and aggregate perspectives on life table heterogeneity: an empirical investigation of area mortality, Social Science Research, 24, 136-166

 

P.Congdon (1995) Modelling frailty in area mortality, Statistics in Medicine, 14, 1859-1874

 

P.Congdon (1994) Spatio-temporal analysis of area mortality, The Statistician, 43(4), 513-528

 

P.Congdon (1994) Analyzing mortality in London: life tables with frailty, The Statistician, 43(2), 277-308

 

P.Congdon (1993) Approaches to modelling overdispersion in the analysis of migration, Environment and Planning, 25, pp 1481-1510

 

P.Congdon(1993) Statistical graduation in local demographic analysis and projections, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 156(2), 237-270

 

P.Congdon and McCallum, I. (1992) A demo-educational model for forecasting school rolls for localities, The Statistician (JRSS Series D) , 41(5), pp 573-590

 

P.Congdon (1992) Aspects of the general linear modelling of migration, The Statistician, 41, pp 133-153

 

P. Congdon (1992) Time series fertility models and structural interpretation, The Journal of Cities and Regions (ISI/SCORUS), 3, 33-60

 

P.Congdon (1992) Multiregional demographic projections in practice: a metropolitan example, Regional Studies 26(2), pp 177-191

 

Champion, A and Congdon, P. (1992) Migration trends in the South of England: decentralisation from London and the validity of the ‘Greater South East’ in ‘Migration Processes and Patterns’, Vol 2, eds. J. Stillwell et al, Belhaven Press

 

P.Congdon (1992) The potential of the Longitudinal Study for migration studies, Update (Longitudinal Study Newsletter), 1, pp 11-14

 

Stillwell, J. and Congdon, P (1992) Migration Modelling: Macro and Micro Perspectives, Belhaven Press& John Wiley

 

P.Congdon (1991) An application of general linear modelling to migration in London and South East England, in Migration Modelling: Macro and Micro Perspectives Belhaven Press & Wiley

 

P.Congdon (1991) Spatio-temporal models for small area social indicators, Papers in Regional Science, 70(3), pp 243-26

 

P.Congdon (1991) Metropolitan social change and the outer suburbs: a case study of London, Espace,Populations, Societes, 1991-3 , pp 381-394

 

P.Congdon (1990) Issues in the Analysis of Small Area Mortality, Urban Studies, 27(4), pp 519-536

 

P.Congdon (1990) Graduation of fertility schedules: an analysis of fertility patterns in London in the 1980s and an application to fertility forecasts, Regional Studies, 24(4),pp 311-326

 

P.Congdon (1990) Small area population and social monitoring: the London case, BURISA Newsletter 95, pp 5-9

 

P.Congdon (1990) Demographic change for districts and small areas, ASLIB Social Sciences Information Group Newsletter, 8(1), pp 14-17

 

P.Congdon (1990) The Analysis of Small Area Social Change, Progress in Planning, 34(3)

 

Shepherd, J, Congdon, P (1990) Small Town England: an Investigation of Population Change among Small and Medium Sized Urban Areas,1971-81, Progress in Planning, 33(1)

 

P.Congdon (1989) An analysis of population and social change in London wards in the 1980s, Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 14(4), pp 478-491

 

P.Congdon (1989) Modelling migration flows between areas: an example for London using the Census and OPCS Longitudinal Study. Regional Studies, 23(2), pp 87-103

 

P.Congdon and A. Champion (1989) Recent population shifts in South East England and their  relevance to the counterurbanisation debate, in ‘Growth and Change in a Core Region’, London Papers in Regional Science, Volume 20

 

Breheny, M and Congdon, P. (1989) Growth and Change in a Core Region: the Case of South East England, London Papers in Regional Science, Volume 20, Pion, London

 

P.Congdon and P. Batey (1989) eds Advances in Regional Demography: Information, Forecasts, Models, John Wiley

 

P.Congdon (1989) Fertility forecasts and structural interpretations: an application to Greater London and England and Wales, Espace, Populations, Societes, 1989-2, pp 177-188

 

P.Congdon (1989) Trends and structure in London’s migration and their relation to employment and housing markets, in Advances in Regional Demography, Belhaven Press

 

P.Congdon (1989) Gender and space in London in the 1980s,  Espace, Populations, Societes, 1989-1, pp 27-42

 

P.Congdon (1988) Deprivation in London wards: mortality and unemployment trends in the 1980’s, The Statistician, 37(4/5), pp 451-472

 

P.Congdon (1988) Occupational mobility and labour market structure: a multivariate Markov model, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, pp 208-226

 

P. Champion and P.Congdon (1988) Recent trends in Greater London’s population, Population Trends, 53, pp 7-17

 

P.Congdon and J. Shepherd (1988) Components of social change in urban areas, Urban Studies, 25, pp 173-189

 

P.Congdon (1988) The interdependence of geographic migration with job and housing mobility in London, Regional Studies, 22, pp 81-93

 

P.Congdon (1988) Heterogeneity and timing effects in occupational mobility in the Irish Republic, in M.Uncles (ed.), Longitudinal Data Analysis: Models and Applications. Pion, London

 

P. Champion and P.Congdon (1987) An analysis of the recovery of London’s population change rate, Built Environment, 13(4), pp193-211

 

P.Congdon and J.Shepherd (1986) Modelling population changes in small English urban areas, Environment and Planning, 18A, pp1297-1322

 

P.Congdon and J.Shepherd (1985) Small area social change in Greater London: a regression approach to measurement, Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 13(1), pp 49-68

 

P.Congdon (1985) Heterogeneity and timing effects in occupational mobility: a general model, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 47(4), pp 347-369

 

P.Congdon (1983) A model for the interaction of migration and commuting, Urban Studies, 20, pp 185-195

 

P.Congdon (1980) Forecasting births in Greater London: an application of the Easterlin hypothesis, Population Studies, 34, pp 267-278

 

Reports

 

Naish, J, Ranmal, R, Curtis, S, Ross, P, Eldridge, S, Congdon, P, Duff, B (2001) Mapping multi-sectoral mental health services in City and East London, Institute of Community Health Sciences, Queen Mary, University of London (ISBN 1 898661 626)

 

Bardsley, M, Basnett, I, Congdon, P, Fleming, A (1996) Changing mortality rates in London: a review of the evidence, Health of Londoners Discussion Paper No 4, East London and City Health Authority

 

P.Congdon (1990) Areas of Need: Factor Analysis and Cluster Description, Appendix 1 in Report of Studies to 1989 Annual Review, London Planning Advisory Committee

 
 
 

E-mail:
p.congdon@qmul.ac.uk