Peter Congdon
Research Professor of Quantitative Geography and
Health Statistics
Centre for Statistics and Department of Geography,
Queen Mary,
Programs & Data Sets for Bayesian
Statistical Modelling, 2nd edition (John Wiley, 2006)
Programs &
Data Sets for Bayesian
Models for Categorical Data (John Wiley,
2005)
Programs & Data Sets for Applied
Bayesian Models (John Wiley, 2003)
Programs & Data Sets for Bayesian
Statistical Modelling (John Wiley, 2001)
Interests
Spatial Statistics, Spatial Epidemiology
Bayesian Techniques
Models for health needs, health inequality and health status variation
Health Services Research
Spatio-temporal mortality models (British Historical GIS Project, http://www.geog.port.ac.uk/gbhgis/)
Professional Activities
Contributor to Statistics.com courses
(Introductory Bayesian Modeling via MCMC Techniques) http://www.statistics.com/ourcourses/MCMC/
Editorial Board, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis (from 2008)
Guest Editor, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis (Special
Issue, Spatial Statistics)
Elected Member (2007) International Statistical
Institute
Associate Editor Biometrics 2006-08
MRC/ESRC Joint Studentship and Postdoctoral Fellowship Schemes: Referee Panel
2008
Referee Panel ESRC/MRC Joint Studentship and Post-Doctoral Fellowship Scheme
2006
Refereeing grant applications on behalf of: UK Economic & Social Research
Council, NHS Service Delivery Organisation R&D Programme, Alberta Heritage
Foundation for Medical Research, Arts and Humanities Research Board; Research
Grants Council (Hong Kong); Health Research Council of New Zealand; Chief Scientist
Office (Edinburgh) HSR Training Scheme., Cancer Research UK, Wales Office of
Research and Development for Health and Social Care
Recent Presentations
American College of Epidemiology, Washington Sept 2009 (with Patsy Lloyd) ACE_Poster.ppt
Psychometric Society Conference,
Cambridge July 2009 (Keynote speaker) Congdon
Cambridge Talk.ppt
CDC Diabetes Translation Conference, Long Beach (Small Area Estimation
Session), April 2009 CongdonTalk.ppt
Royal Statistical Society Conference, Nottingham, Migration Models Session
(September 2008) Talk
Centre for Geographical Health Research, Southampton University, Nov 2007 Talk
Austrian Statistical Society,
Sept 2007 (STATISTIKTAGE 2007),
Keynote Speaker Talk
Invited Presentation, Workshop on
Bayesian Approaches to Spatial Modelling, Royal Geographical Society-IBG
2007 International Conference
ESDS Government Research Conference 2006, Estimating the
Prevalence of Diabetes and Other Chronic Diseases for Small Geographic Areas
SEM methods to represent deprivation and fragmentation constructs, Deprivation
Indices Conference 2007, King's College London Institute of Psychiatry, Talk
Recent Funded
Projects & Collaborations
Collaboration with National Minority Quality
Forum (http://www.nmqf.org) and CDC on
Bayesian mapping of Zip Code Tabulation Area disease prevalence
Psychiatric Health Needs Mapping in New York State (Grants HR1 SM54207, HR1
SM56661, Substance Abuse & Mental Health Services Administration)
ESRC CASE Studentship: Small Area Life Expectancies in London
Resilience and Capability Effects
on Health and Education Status (ESRC)
Neighbourhood Influences on Adolescent Health in East London (ESRC)
Locality Level Mortality and Socio-economic Change in Britain since 1920 (ESRC
Health Variations, Phase II).
Mapping Mental Health Services in
Mapping Community and Mental Health Services for the Elderly in Barking and
Havering (King's Fund)
Influences of Geographic Setting on Social Differences in Health (ESRC)
Publications:
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Congdon, P (2010) Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods, Chapman & Hall/CRC (forthcoming) Congdon, P, Lloyd P (2010) Estimating small area diabetes prevalence in the US using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Journal of Data Science, 8(2) forthcoming |
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Congdon, P (2010) Random effects models for migration attractivity and retentivity: a Bayesian methodology, J Roy Stat Soc Series A (forthcoming) Congdon, P (2009) Explaining the spatial pattern of
suicide and self-harm rates: a case study of east and south east England, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy. doi 10.1007/s12061-009-9038-4 |
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Congdon, P (2009) A multiple
indicator, multiple cause method for representing social capital with an
application to psychological distress. Journal of Geographical Systems, 11
(forthcoming) doi: 10.1007/s10109-009-0097-5 |
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Congdon, P (2009) Assessing
differential area mortality trends via Bayesian random effects.
Communications in Statistics – Theory and Methods (forthcoming) |
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LeSage J, Banerjee S, Fischer M, Congdon P (2009) Spatial statistics: methods, models & computation, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 53: 2781-2785. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2008.11.001 |
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Congdon, P (2009) Modelling the impact of socioeconomic structure on spatial health outcomes. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 53: 3047-3056 doi:10.1016/j.csda.2007.10.021 |
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Congdon P (2009) A multilevel model for cardiovascular
disease prevalence in the |
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Congdon P (2009) Life expectancies for small areas: a Bayesian random effects methodology, International Statistical Review, 77, 222-240 http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/122457806/abstract |
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Congdon P (2009) Adaptive autoregressive priors for area
and time structured mortality data. Journal of Statistical Planning and
Inference, 139, 2870-2884. |
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Congdon P (2009) A spatial structural equation model with an application to area health needs. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 79 (forthcoming) doi:10.1080/00949650802676300 |
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Curtis S, Congdon P, Almog M, Ellerman R (2009) County
variation in use of inpatient and ambulatory psychiatric care in New York
State 1999-2001: need and supply influences in a structural model, Health and
Place 15(2):568-577 |
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Congdon P (2008) The need for psychiatric care in England: a spatial factor methodology. Journal of Geographical Systems 10 (3), 217-239 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10109-008-0064-6 |
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Congdon P (2008) A spatially adaptive conditional autoregressive prior for area health data, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.stamet.2008.02.005 Statistical Methodology, 5, 552-563 |
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Congdon P (2008) A bivariate frailty model for events with a permanent survivor fraction and non-monotonic hazards; with an application to age at first maternity, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 52 (9), 4346-4356 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2008.02.017 |
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Fagg, J, Curtis S, Clark C, Congdon, P, Stansfeld S (2008) Neighbourhood perceptions among inner city adolescents: relationships with their individual characteristics and with independently assessed neighbourhood conditions. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 28, 128-142 doi:10.1016/j.jenvp.2007.10.004 |
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Congdon, P (2008) Estimating the prevalence of coronary heart disease in local areas: integrating information from health surveys and area mortality, Health & Place, 14(1) 59-75 pdf doi:10.1016/j.healthplace.2007.04.003 |
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Congdon, P (2008) A spatial structural equation model for health outcomes. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 138 (7): 2090-2105 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jspi.2007.09.001 |
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Congdon, P (2008) Indirect area estimates of disease prevalence: Bayesian evidence synthesis with an application to CHD. Journal of Data Science, 6 (1), 15-32 |
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Congdon, P (2008) Bayesian Statistics, in "Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Assessment" Wiley (forthcoming) |
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Ghosh, S, Das, K, Congdon, P (2007) Analysis of marginally specified semi-nonparametric models for clustered binary data. Statistica Neerlandica 61 (3), 292-306. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9574.2007.00355.x |
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Congdon, P (2007) A model for spatial variations in life expectancy; mortality in Chinese regions in 2000. International Journal of Health Geographics 2007, 6:16doi:10.1186/1476-072X-6-16 http://www.ij-healthgeographics.com/content/6/1/16 |
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Congdon P, Almog M, Curtis S, Ellerman R (2007) A spatial structural equation modelling framework for health count responses. Statistics in Medicine 26 (29): 5267-5284,pdf doi:10.1002/sim.2921 |
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Congdon, P (2007) Bayesian modeling of migration age
structures. In "The Estimation of
International Migration in |
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Congdon, P (2007) Model weights for model choice and averaging, Statistical Methodology 4(2):143-157,pdf doi:10.1016/j.stamet.2006.05.002 Toy Example Codes (odc); Toy Example Codes (txt); Posterior Model Probabilities, Toy Examples.pdf |
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Congdon, P (2007) Mixtures of spatial and unstructured effects for spatially discontinuous health outcomes. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 51, 3197-3212, pdf doi:10.1016/j.csda.2006.11.028 |
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Contributor to Bartley, M (ed) (2006) Capability and Resilience : Beating the Odds, C&R Network and Economic and Social Research Council |
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Congdon, P (2006) Modelling hospital activity: accounting for small area and primary care practice variation, Advances and Applications in Statistics, 6, 335-351 |
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Congdon, P (2006) A model for geographical variation in health and total life expectancy, Demographic Research, 14, 157-178 |
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Congdon, P (2006) Modelling multiple hospital outcomes: the impact of small area and primary care practice variation. International Journal of Health Geographics, 5: 50. http://www.ij-healthgeographics.com/content/5/1/50 |
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Congdon, P (2006) Bayesian modelling strategies for
spatially varying regression coefficients: A multivariate perspective for
multiple outcomes. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 51(5), pp
2586-2601,pdf |
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Congdon, P (2006) Bayesian Statistical Modelling, 2nd
edition. Wiley http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470018755.html |
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Fagg, J, Curtis, S, Congdon, P, Stansfeld, S (2006) Psychological distress among adolescents, and its relationship to individual, family and area characteristics; evidence from East London, UK. Social Science & Medicine, 63, 636-48 doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2006.02.012 |
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Congdon, P (2006) Estimating diabetes prevalence by small
area in |
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Congdon P (2006) Estimating population prevalence of psychiatric conditions by small area with applications to analysing outcome and referral variations. Health & Place, 12:465-78 doi:10.1016/j.healthplace.2005.05.001 |
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Congdon, P (2006) A spatio-temporal forecasting approach for health indicators, Journal of Data Science 4(4): 399-412 |
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Congdon, P (2006) A model framework for mortality and health data classified by age, area and time. Biometrics, 61, 269-278,pdf |
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P. Congdon (2006) Bayesian model comparison via parallel model output, DOI: 10.1080/00949650412331320864 Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 76 (2), 149-165 |
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Congdon, P (2006) Forecasting Regional Demand for Acute Health Care, Chapter 10 in Delay Management in Health Care Systems, Ed Randolph Hall, Springer |
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P. Congdon(2006) Bayesian model choice based on |
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Congdon, P (2006) A model for nonparametric spatially varying regression effects, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 50, 422-445 doi:10.1016/j.csda.2004.08.008 |
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Curtis, S, Copeland, A,
Fagg, J, Congdon, P, Almog,
M, Fitzpatrick, J (2006) The
ecological relationship between deprivation, social isolation and rates of
hospital admission for acute psychiatric care: a comparison of |
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P. Congdon (2005)
Bayesian Models for Categorical Data, Wiley |
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Congdon, P, Clarke, T (2005) Assessing intervention effects in a community based trial to reduce self-harm: a methodological case study, Public Health, 119, 1011-5. |
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Chapman J, Congdon P, Shaw S, Carter Y (2005) The
geographical distribution of specialists in public health in the |
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P. Congdon (2005) MCMC and Bayesian Methods, In: Encyclopedia
of Statistics in the Behavioural Sciences, Wiley |
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Mitra S, Washington S, Congdon P, Van Schalkwyk, |
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Congdon, P, Southall, H (2005) Trends in inequality in
infant mortality in the North of England, 1921-1973 and their association
with urban and social structure, J Roy Stat Soc Series A, 168, 679-700 |
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Chapman J, Shaw S, Congdon P, Carter Y, Abbott S, Petchey
R.(2004) Specialist public health capacity in the |
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P.Congdon (2005) Bayesian predictive model comparison via parallel sampling, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 48(4), 735-753 doi:10.1016/j.csda.2004.03.016 |
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Fagg, J, Curtis, S, Stansfeld, S, Congdon, P (2004)
Neighbourhood influences on adolescent health in |
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P.Congdon (2004) Contextual effects: index construction and technique, International Journal of Epidemiology, 33, 741 – 742 |
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Campos, R, Congdon, P, et al (2004) Locality level mortality and socioeconomic change in Britain since 1920: first steps towards an analysis of infant mortality variation, In P. Boyle, S. Curtis, A. Gatrell, E. Graham, E. Moore (eds.) The Geography of Health Inequalities in the Developed World, Aldershot: Ashgate |
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Congdon, P (2004) Modelling trends and inequality in small area mortality, J Applied Statistics, 31, 6, 603-622 |
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Congdon, P, Southall, H (2004) Small area variations in infant mortality in England and Wales in the inter-war period and their link with socio-economic factors, Journal of Health and Place, 10, 363-382 doi:10.1016/j.healthplace.2003.05.001 |
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Almog, M, Curtis, S, Copeland, A, Congdon, P (2004) Geographical variation in acute psychiatric admissions within New York City 1990-2000: growing inequalities in service use?, Social Science and Medicine, 59,361-376 |
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Congdon, P (2003) A multivariate model for spatio-temporal
health outcomes with an application to suicide mortality, Geographical
Analysis, 36, 234-258 |
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Curtis, S, Southall, H, Congdon, P, Dodgeon, B (2003) Analysis of the Longitudinal Study sample in England using new data on area of residence in childhood. Social Science and Medicine, 57(12) |
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P.Congdon (2003) Modelling spatially varying impacts of socioeconomic predictors on mortality outcomes, Journal of Geographical Systems, 5 (20, 161-184 |
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P.Congdon (2003) Applied Bayesian Models, John Wiley |
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P.Congdon (2002) A life table approach to small area health need profiling, Statistical Modelling, 2,1-26 |
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P.Congdon (2002) A model for mental health needs and resourcing in small geographic areas: a multivariate spatial perspective, Geographical Analysis, 34, 2, 168-186 |
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P.Congdon (2001) The development of gravity models for hospital patient flows under system change: a Bayesian modelling approach, Health Care Management Science, 4, 289-304 |
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P. Congdon, R. Campos, S. Curtis, H. Southall, I. Gregory, I. Jones (2001) Quantifying and explaining changes in geographical inequality of infant mortality in England and Wales since the 1890s, International Journal of Population Geography, 7, 35-51 |
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P. Congdon (2001) Health status and healthy life measures for population health need assessment: modelling variability and uncertainty, Journal of Health and Place, 7(1):13-25. doi:10.1016/S1353-8292(00)00034-4 |
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R. Fowler, P. Congdon and S. Hamilton (2001) Assessing health status and outcomes in older people attending a geriatric day hospital, Public Health, 114, 440-44 |
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P. Congdon (2001), Bayesian models for suicide monitoring, European J. of Population , 15, 3,1-34 |
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P.Congdon (2001) Bayesian Statistical Modelling, John Wiley |
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P.Congdon (2001) Predicting adverse infant health outcomes using routine screening variables: modelling the impact of interdependent risk factors, J. Applied Statistics, 28(2), 183-197 |
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P. Congdon (2000) A Bayesian approach to prediction using the gravity model, with an application to patient flow modelling, Geographical Analysis, 32 (3) ,205-224 |
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P Congdon, N Best (1999) Small area variation in hospital admission rates: adjusting for referral and provider variation, J. Roy Stat Soc, Series C, 49(2), 207-226 |
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P. Congdon, (1999) Primary Care Needs Assessment and Resourcing: Complementary Practice and Geographic Perspectives, J. Health and Place, 5, 1, 59-82 |
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P. Congdon, A. Smith and C. Dean (1998) Assessing psychiatric morbidity from a community register: methods for Bayesian adjustment, Urban Studies, 35 (12), 2323-2352 |
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P. Congdon (1998) A multi-level model for infant health outcomes: maternal risk factors and geographic variation, The Statistician, 47 (1), 159-182 |
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P. Congdon (1997) Multilevel and clustering analysis of health outcomes in small areas, European J.of Population, 13, 305-338 |
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P.Congdon (1997) Realignment
of suicide differentials in |
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P.Congdon (1997) Bayesian models for the spatial structure of rare health outcomes: a study of suicide using the BUGS program, Journal of Health and Place, 3(4), 229-247 doi:10.1016/S1353-8292(97)00017-8 |
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P.Congdon, S.Shouls,S.Curtis
(1997) A multi-level perspective on small area health and mortality: a case study of |
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P. Congdon (1996) General linear gravity models for the impact of casualty unit closures, Urban Studies, 33, 1707-1728 |
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S.Shouls, P.Congdon, S.Curtis (1996) Modelling inequality in reported long term illness: combining individual and area characteristics, J. Epid. Comm. Health, 50, 366-376 |
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S.Shouls, P.Congdon, S.Curtis (1996) Geographic variation in health: the development of a relevant area typology for SAR districts, Health and Place, 2(3), 139-155 doi:10.1016/1353-8292(96)00002-0 |
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P.Congdon (1996) The incidence of suicide and parasuicide: a small area study, Urban Studies, 33, 137-158 |
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P.Congdon (1996) The epidemiology
of suicide in |
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P.Congdon (1995) Life table analysis for areas using vital register data, Eur J Popul 11 (4): 343-369 |
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P.Congdon (1995) The impact of area context on long term illness and premature mortality: an illustration of multi-level analysis, Regional Studies, 29, 327-344 |
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P.Congdon (1995) Localities for epidemiological monitoring and health policy, Urban Studies, 32(7), 1175-1198 |
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P.Congdon (1995)
Socio-economic structure and health in |
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P.Congdon (1995) Micro and aggregate perspectives on life table heterogeneity: an empirical investigation of area mortality, Social Science Research, 24, 136-166 |
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P.Congdon (1995) Modelling frailty in area mortality, Statistics in Medicine, 14, 1859-1874 |
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P.Congdon (1994) Spatio-temporal analysis of area mortality, The Statistician, 43(4), 513-528 |
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P.Congdon (1994) Modelling mortality
in |
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P.Congdon (1993) Approaches to modelling overdispersion in the analysis of migration, Environment and Planning, 25, pp 1481-1510 |
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P.Congdon(1993) Statistical graduation in local demographic analysis and projections, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 156(2), 237-270 |
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P.Congdon and McCallum, I. (1992) A demo-educational model for forecasting school rolls for localities, The Statistician (JRSS Series D) , 41(5), pp 573-590 |
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P.Congdon (1992) Aspects of the general linear modelling of migration, The Statistician, 41, pp 133-153 |
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P. Congdon (1992) Time series fertility models and structural interpretation, The Journal of Cities and Regions (ISI/SCORUS), 3, 33-60 |
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P.Congdon (1992) Multiregional demographic projections in practice: a metropolitan example, Regional Studies 26(2), pp 177-191 |
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Champion, A and Congdon, P. (1992) Migration trends in the South of England: decentralisation from London and the validity of the ‘Greater South East’ in ‘Migration Processes and Patterns’, Vol 2, eds. J. Stillwell et al, Belhaven Press |
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P.Congdon (1992) The potential of the Longitudinal Study for migration studies, Update (Longitudinal Study Newsletter), 1, pp 11-14 |
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Stillwell, J. and Congdon, P (1992) Migration Modelling: Macro and Micro Perspectives, Belhaven Press& John Wiley |
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P.Congdon (1991) An application
of general linear modelling to migration in |
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P.Congdon (1991) Spatio-temporal models for small area social indicators, Papers in Regional Science, 70(3), pp 243-26 |
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P.Congdon (1991) Metropolitan
social change and the outer suburbs: a case study of |
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P.Congdon (1990) Issues in the Analysis of Small Area Mortality, Urban Studies, 27(4), pp 519-536 |
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P.Congdon (1990) Graduation of
fertility schedules: an analysis of fertility patterns in |
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P.Congdon (1990) Small area
population and social monitoring: the |
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P.Congdon (1990) Demographic change for districts and small areas, ASLIB Social Sciences Information Group Newsletter, 8(1), pp 14-17 |
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P.Congdon (1990) The Analysis of Small Area Social Change, Progress in Planning, 34(3) |
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Shepherd, J, Congdon, P (1990)
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P.Congdon (1989) An analysis
of population and social change in |
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P.Congdon (1989) Modelling migration
flows between areas: an example for |
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P.Congdon and A. Champion (1989) Recent population shifts in South East England and their relevance to the counterurbanisation debate, in ‘Growth and Change in a Core Region’, London Papers in Regional Science, Volume 20 |
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Breheny, M and Congdon, P.
(1989) Growth and Change in a Core Region: the Case of South East England, |
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P.Congdon and P. Batey (1989) eds Advances in Regional Demography: Information, Forecasts, Models, John Wiley |
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P.Congdon (1989) Fertility
forecasts and structural interpretations: an application to Greater London
and |
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P.Congdon (1989) Trends and
structure in |
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P.Congdon (1989) Gender and space in |
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P.Congdon (1988) Deprivation
in |
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P.Congdon (1988) Occupational mobility and labour market structure: a multivariate Markov model, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, pp 208-226 |
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P. Champion and P.Congdon (1988) Recent trends in Greater London’s population, Population Trends, 53, pp 7-17 |
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P.Congdon and J. Shepherd (1988) Components of social change in urban areas, Urban Studies, 25, pp 173-189 |
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P.Congdon (1988) The
interdependence of geographic migration with job and housing mobility in |
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P.Congdon (1988) Heterogeneity
and timing effects in occupational mobility in the |
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P. Champion and P.Congdon
(1987) An analysis of the recovery of |
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P.Congdon and J.Shepherd (1986) Modelling population changes in small English urban areas, Environment and Planning, 18A, pp1297-1322 |
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P.Congdon and J.Shepherd (1985) Small area social change in Greater London: a regression approach to measurement, Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 13(1), pp 49-68 |
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P.Congdon (1985) Heterogeneity and timing effects in occupational mobility: a general model, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 47(4), pp 347-369 |
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P.Congdon (1983) A model for the interaction of migration and commuting, Urban Studies, 20, pp 185-195 |
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P.Congdon (1980) Forecasting births in Greater London: an application of the Easterlin hypothesis, Population Studies, 34, pp 267-278 |
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Reports |
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Naish, J, Ranmal, R, Curtis, S, Ross, P, Eldrideg, S, Congdon, P, Duff, B (2001) Mapping multi-sectoral mental health services in City and East London, Institute of Community Health Sciences, Queen Mary, University of London (ISBN 1 898661 626) |
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Bardsley, M, Basnett, I,
Congdon, P and Fleming, A (1996) Changing mortality rates in |
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P.Congdon (1990) Areas of
Need: Factor Analysis and Cluster Description, Appendix 1 in Report of Studies to 1989 Annual Review, |
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